Impact of US approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs on domestic CEXs (2024-01~)

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This entry sits under exchanges index. Read it against Japan Institutional Custody Three-Pillar Structure — Komainu / Ginco / Fireblocks Japan Comparison for peer / contrast context and FSA crypto-asset exchange registration system — number system / Local Finance Bureau jurisdiction / registration requirements for the broader system / regulatory boundary.

1. Overview

On 2024-01-10, the US SEC approved 11 件 BTC spot ETFs all at once (BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, Ark 21Shares ARKB, Bitwise BITB, Grayscale GBTC, Invesco/Galaxy BTCO, VanEck HODL, Valkyrie BRRR, Franklin EZBC, WisdomTree BTCW, Hashdex DEFI). This released global institutional-investor flows into the crypto spot market through a formal route, giving hedge funds, pensions, and RIAs (Registered Investment Advisors) low-cost exposure. The impact on Japan’s domestic CEXs is observed through 3 routes: (a) higher trading volume from rising spot prices, (b) acceleration of domestic institutional accounts, and (c) the move toward full-fledged debate over lifting the ban on a domestic BTC ETF.

2. Figures (2024-2026)

IBIT (BlackRock): AUM on the scale of $80-100B · the largest share among spot ETFs · reached $50B AUM at the fastest pace in history
Total AUM of US spot ETFs: $200B+ (2026 estimate) · absorbing a few percent of the world’s circulating BTC
Coinbase Custody: holds custody for 9 件 of the 11 件 (oligopoly in institutional custody) — consistent with global-institutional-custody-five-pillars
Daily net inflow: exceeded $1B/day at peak (during the spring-2024 and late-2024 rallies)

3. 3 -route impact on domestic CEXs

(a) Price spillover: BTC spot price rises → increased domestic spot trading volume · 1 BTC surpassing 1,500 万円 (first reached 2024-03 ). jvcea-spot-volume-statistics-analysis also confirms a rebound in 2024 monthly spot trading volume
(b) Institutionalization: acceleration of domestic corporate account openings · JVCEA statistics also show a net increase in corporate accounts in 2024+. bitFlyer / SBI VC Trade / Coincheck strengthened their corporate-oriented services
(c) Debate over lifting the domestic ETF ban: in 2025-2026 the debate over domestic approval of BTC/ETH spot ETFs progressed at the FSA + industry bodies (JVCEA/JCBA) · not yet approved as of 2026-05 (requires legal amendment) — see jp-vasp-regulatory-timeline

4. Institutional barriers to lifting the ban on a Japan ETF

Tax inequity: crypto assets are miscellaneous income (progressive, max 55%) · ETFs are subject to separate self-assessment taxation (20.315%) — a 35pp tax-rate gap on the same underlying asset
Requires amendment of the FIEA + Investment Trust Act: adding crypto assets to the “investment-target assets” of investment trusts. Under the current Investment Trust Act, crypto is not enumerated as a “specified asset” in Article 2 , so it is at the level of a cabinet-order amendment
Division among regulators: FSA supervisory guidelines + industry compliance cost · custody, valuation, and liquidity rules need to be put in place
2026 amendment proposal: under discussion · the staged view of sequentially lifting the ban on ETH/BTC is dominant

5. Investor implications

Indirect exposure via US ETFs: Japanese investors can buy US spot ETFs (IBIT, etc.) via Nomura Securities / SBI Securities / Rakuten Securities / Monex Securities · without waiting for domestic approval, with tokutei-account support (20% separate self-assessment)
Competitive pressure on domestic CEXs: when the ETF ban is lifted, there is a risk of declining share in domestic spot trading. In the US too, after spot-ETF approval, a trend of Coinbase retail spot trading volume flowing to ETFs was observed → this also affects the sales-outlet-model revenue of jp-cex-sales-vs-exchange-model-economics
Inflow of institutional players: increasing strategic significance for major financial conglomerates such as Monex / SBI / Nomura / Sumitomo Mitsui Trust → jp-listed-cex-related-companies-matrix

global-institutional-custody-five-pillars — global institutional custody, the 5 pillars
rwa-tokenization-cex-integration — RWA tokenization × CEX integration
global-cex-prime-brokerage-layer — global CEX prime brokerage layer

Source: compiled from public information (SEC press, BlackRock IBIT prospectus, Coinbase Custody IR, FSA disclosures, Nikkei/ITmedia reporting, Bloomberg ETF flow data)